My caucus predictions

Posted on January 3, 2008 in Iowa Caucuses, Politics by DM

elephant donkey caucus graphic I mentioned I’d been doing some political blogging, and was thinking about moving some of those posts over here. Below is a post from October 8, in which I made some predictions about the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses. (Claire Celsi has posted her predictions as well - take a look!) Obviously, some of my predictions about who would drop out didn’t come true. I also didn’t predict the Register’s endorsement of McCain. But, for what it’s worth, here are the predictions I made back in October.

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Based on the results of the Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa Poll, comparing those results to the poll conducted in May, and taking into account what my gut tells me about presidential candidates and the Iowa Caucuses, I’m going to make a few predictions about the outcome of the Caucuses here in ~~January~~. ~~December~~. January.

Republicans, in order of Caucus victory: Romney, Thompson, Huckabee. Although Thompson immediately sucked support from some candidates as expected, only McCain lost enough percentage points to fall from the first tier. He won’t be able to recover. Romney only lost one percentage point following Thompson’s entry, and I believe he’ll remain top-of-mind. Thompson, meanwhile, seems to have been great in theory but not in practice - it’s nearly impossible to get past the dead-pan exterior - or even stay awake during his remarks. Huckabee, on the other hand, gained 8 percentage points since Thompson joined the race, and he finished 2nd in the Ames Straw Poll. Giuliani’s barely present here, and Huckabee’s name recognition is approaching first-tier status. The caucus process will give Huckabee a boost into that first tier, while Giuliani will learn you can’t ignore Iowa and still finish well here even you were America’s Mayor six years ago.

Ron Paul gained four percentage points since Thompson entered the race. He could pick up additional steam if he’d spend some of his $5 million third-quarter money on Iowa TV ads, but he’s unlikely with only 3 months to go to venture into the double-digits before Caucus night. Perhaps he should spend some of that $5 million in New Hampshire instead. He’ll finish fifth here, even though his supporters will be among the caucus-goers.

Hunter, Cox, Brownback and McCain will withdraw before the Caucuses happen.

Democrats, in order of Caucus victory: Clinton, Obama, Edwards. Although John Edwards literally traded places with Hillary Clinton between the May and October results, his campaign doesn’t have the strength to hold his position. His acceptance of federal matching campaign funds signals that his ability to fund-raise is dwindling. Obama, meanwhile, has remained steady in his polling results but doesn’t have the steamroller factor going for him. His inexperience on the world stage will also be part of his undoing. I have never had a doubt that Hillary would be her party’s nominee or that she would win in Iowa. Everything she’s done in her adult life has been in preparation for this run, and despite her mis-steps (past, present and future), she has the machine in place to make it happen. No side notes here; Biden barely budged forward, Richardson barely budged downward, and the rest remained the same. Dodd will withdraw before the Caucuses.

An Aside about the Caucuses:

With all due respect to those states that have primary elections - Iowa’s caucus-goers are a breed apart from primary voters. In a primary, you go out to your precinct polling place and cast your vote for the candidate you most want to run against the other party’s choice. It’s pretty simple. And, it’s private.

Caucuses are also events held at the precinct level, but that’s where the similarity to primaries ends. A caucus is a gathering of voters from a particular precinct. Those voters gather to debate the merits of the candidates from their party. In front of each other. In front of their neighbors. In front of their spouses. Discussions can be low-key, highly spirited, or downright combative, depending on who’s in attendance from the precinct. Eventually, a vote is taken as to which candidate the precinct supports. The precinct results from across the state determine how the state’s support will be cast at the national party conventions. This is, obviously a very different thing from simply stepping into a little booth and marking a ballot in private. A caucus-goer is not just a voter. A caucus-goer is a person who is interested in political leadership at the most basic grassroots level. And they’re willing to be vocal about their support for a candidate, even if it means going up against someone they know well. This is one of the reasons why Iowa’s caucus process cannot be lost in the shuffle of nominating events around the country - the choices made at the caucuses are too well-informed, and too carefully considered, to be cast aside simply because some other state wants to “go first.”

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